Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:43:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

6B 0x6b87…a785 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$42 (+17%) realized +$122 · open −$80

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +67% what you keep after slip

Net edge+67%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$42per market

Trades / day11.0pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+80.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+100.0%	+80.9%	100%	100%	+79.8%
≤30d	2	+100.0%	+80.9%	100%	100%	+79.8%
≤90d	2	+100.0%	+80.9%	100%	100%	+79.8%
all	2	+100.0%	+80.9%	100%	100%	+79.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+80.9%	100%	+79.8%
10%	+63.6%	100%	+62.6%
15%	+47.8%	100%	+46.9%
20%	+33.3%	100%	+32.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 60% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +99% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +100% · $-wt +99% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$52 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$62

Realized+$122

Unrealized−$80

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions4

Markets (closed)2 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$42

Trades / day11.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	FURIA	53¢	24¢	$97	$44	−$53 (-55%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	13¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-0%)
Spread: Spain (-5.5)	Spain	41¢	16¢	$20	$8	−$12 (-60%)
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	Over	46¢	0¢	$15	$0	−$15 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$66	+$63	+95%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	Jun 21	$40	+$42	+105%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	BUY FURIA	53¢	$7	37m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	BUY FURIA	53¢	$30	38m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	BUY FURIA	53¢	$61	39m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	46m
Spread: Spain (-5.5)	BUY Spain	41¢	$20	1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$129	1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	49¢	$41	1h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	BUY Over	46¢	$15	1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	53¢	$25	1h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	SELL Under	100¢	$81	1h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	BUY Under	48¢	$40	4h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.93 · official $63.64 · 11 history records