Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b85…c541 other 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$92 (-0%) realized −$92 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%9W / 102L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$12
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$29
politics 19% −$6
sports 6% −$59
economics 3% −$1
culture 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.1% -32.2% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 17 -6.0% -15.0% 6% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 108 -7.9% -16.7% 8% 5% -9.8%
all 111 -7.7% -16.5% 8% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 5% -9.8%
10% -24.5% 5% -18.5%
15% -31.8% 4% -26.3%
20% -38.5% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)111 / 113
History coverage92d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $130 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $140 $141 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $938 −$1 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $291 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $44 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $527 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $267 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $51 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 02 $98 $0 +0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $291 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $261 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $688 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $238 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $671 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 14 $222 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 14 $225 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $232 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $901 −$1 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $229 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $218 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $442 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $705 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $233 $0 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 05 $216 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 05 $242 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $227 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $233 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $230 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $222 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $225 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April? May 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $234 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $239 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? Apr 24 $232 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $445 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $233 $0 +0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $231 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $245 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $236 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $234 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $236 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 31h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 35h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 36h
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 3d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 3d
Will Solana reach $130 in June? BUY No 99¢ $140 5d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 7d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 8d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $44 8d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 9d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $51 10d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $51 10d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $41 13d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $41 13d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 15d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 15d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 15d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 15d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 17d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 17d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 18d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 18d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $43 18d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 19d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.06 · official $190.06 (match) · 347 history records