Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:46:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6B 0x6b7e…4562 politics 244 markets active 497d ago coverage 75d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 75d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL −$119,637 (-133%) realized −$119,637 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +230% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +154% what you keep after slip
Net edge+154%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate69%169W / 76L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$370per market
Trades / day35.7pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 75d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% +$26,254
other 18% +$19,462
world 14% +$8,981
sports 13% +$2,550
crypto 9% +$3,640
finance 6% +$2,790
economics 5% +$2,437
weather 1% +$30
tech 1% −$524
culture 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+198.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 245 +229.7% +198.3% 69% 51% +42.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +198.3% 51% +42.9%
10% ← realistic here +169.8% 46% +29.2%
15% +143.7% 40% +16.7%
20% +119.8% 37% +5.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +230% · $-wt +73% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +177% → late +282% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$444 vs −$125 · ×3.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.99 per $1 lost it wins $7.99
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$119,637
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses169 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)245 / 244
History coverage75d ⚠
Avg bet$370
Trades / day35.7
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 245 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Napoli win the Serie A? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? May 19 $29 +$21 +72%
Will Jake Paul fight Conor McGregor next? May 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Jake Paul fight Tommy Fury next? May 19 $64 −$25 -39%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days? May 19 $76 +$128 +168%
Will Steve Bannon be a member of the Trump administration? Apr 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump uses a recess appointment for Cabinet? Apr 02 $104 −$13 -13%
Will Donald Trump Jr. be a member of the Trump administration? Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mike Davis be Trump's Attorney General? Feb 03 $116 +$6 +5%
Will Ken Martin be the next DNC chair? Feb 03 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Laphonza Butler be the next DNC chair? Feb 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Martin O'Malley be the next DNC chair? Feb 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Will 'Now and Then' win Record of the Year? Feb 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Sherrod Brown be the next DNC chair? Feb 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Will 'The Tortured Poets Department' win Album of the Year? Feb 03 $1 +$1 +52%
Will 'BRAT' win Album of the Year? Feb 03 $206 +$5 +2%
Will 'Hit Me Hard and Soft' win Album of the Year? Feb 03 $14 +$5 +32%
Will 'Not Like Us' win Record of the Year? Feb 03 $31 +$191 +614%
Will 'TEXAS HOLD 'EM' win Song of the Year? Feb 03 $326 +$24 +8%
Nine Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Feb 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Ten or more Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Feb 02 $108 +$2 +2%
Eight Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Feb 02 $4 +$51 +1150%
Seven Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Feb 02 $213 +$26 +12%
Six Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Jan 30 $108 +$12 +11%
Five Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Jan 29 $53 +$8 +14%
Four Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Jan 28 $104 +$12 +12%
Three Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Jan 27 $494 +$67 +14%
Will Tom Cotton be Trump's Defense Secretary? Jan 25 $537 −$482 -90%
Will Simon Harris be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? Jan 24 $83 −$21 -25%
One Trump Cabinet confirmation in January? Jan 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Micheal Martin be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? Jan 24 $28 +$72 +257%
Will Trump withdraw from Paris climate agreement in first 100 days? Jan 23 $54 +$29 +53%
Trump ban on birth right citizenship in first 100 days? Jan 22 $82 +$41 +50%
Will Frank LaRose be appointed as the next Ohio senator? Jan 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jose Oliva be appointed as the next Florida senator? Jan 21 $9 −$9 -94%
Will Roy Altman be appointed as the next Florida senator? Jan 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Casey DeSantis be appointed as the next Florida senator? Jan 21 $21 +$1 +3%
Elon Musk citizenship revoked before inauguration? Jan 21 $8 $0 +2%
Will RFK be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 21 $143 +$241 +168%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 21 $755 +$988 +131%
Trump Cabinet confirmation on Day 1? Jan 21 $54 −$9 -17%
Will Trump formally nominate RFK Jr. to the cabinet? Jan 21 $506 +$254 +50%
Will Trump formally nominate Tulsi Gabbard to the cabinet? Jan 21 $1,043 +$68 +6%
Will Michelle Obama attend presidential inauguration? Jan 21 $9 +$55 +621%
Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times during his inauguration speech Jan 20 $98 +$57 +59%
Will Joe Biden attend presidential inauguration? Jan 20 $27 +$2 +8%
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $86 +$33 +38%
Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $28 +$127 +456%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $129 +$65 +51%
US inauguration on January 20? Jan 20 $527 +$28 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Todd Blanche be Trump's Attorney General? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 496d
Will Mike Davis be Trump's Attorney General? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 496d
Will Matthew Whitaker be Trump's Attorney General? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 496d
Will Jose Oliva be appointed as the next Florida senator? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 509d
Will Roy Altman be appointed as the next Florida senator? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 509d
Will Jared Goff win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 509d
Will another player win NFL MVP for the 2024-2025 season? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 509d
Will Jon Husted be appointed as the next Ohio senator? SELL Yes 99¢ $58 509d
Will Casey DeSantis be appointed as the next Florida senator? SELL No 100¢ $22 509d
Will George W. Bush attend presidential inauguration? SELL No 0¢ $0 510d
Will Hillary Clinton attend presidential inauguration? SELL No 0¢ $0 510d
Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during his inauguration speech? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 510d
Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech? SELL No 0¢ $0 510d
Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during his inauguration speech? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 510d
Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during his inauguration speech? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 510d
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his SELL Yes 0¢ $0 510d
Will Rudy Giuliani attend presidential inauguration? SELL No 0¢ $0 510d
Will Biden resign before inauguration? SELL No 100¢ $1,007 511d
Will Biden resign before inauguration? SELL No 100¢ $3 511d
Will Biden resign before inauguration? SELL No 100¢ $8 511d
Will Biden resign before inauguration? SELL No 100¢ $8 511d
Will Biden resign before inauguration? SELL No 100¢ $222 511d
Will Biden resign before inauguration? SELL No 100¢ $130 511d
Will Biden resign before inauguration? SELL No 100¢ $6 511d
Will Biden resign before inauguration? SELL No 100¢ $83 511d
Will Ron DeSantis be Trump's Defense Secretary? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 511d
Will Thomas Massie be Trump's Defense Secretary? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 511d
Will Robert O'Brien be Trump's Defense Secretary? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 511d
Will Mike Rogers be Trump's Defense Secretary? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 511d
Will Joni Ernst be Trump's Defense Secretary? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 511d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records