Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:05:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b7b…8eaa other 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$128 (-12%) realized −$128 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%5W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$19
14 days−$53
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$54
sports 11% −$12
finance 8% −$16
tech 6% −$12
crypto 6% −$50
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -11.5% -19.9% 14% 0% -12.8%
≤30d 56 -21.9% -29.3% 9% 0% -21.8%
≤90d 56 -21.9% -29.3% 9% 0% -21.8%
all 56 -21.9% -29.3% 9% 0% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 0% -21.8%
10% -36.1% 0% -29.3%
15% -42.3% 0% -36.1%
20% -47.9% 0% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$128
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses5 / 51
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage23d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 20 $6 $0 -1%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Switzerland be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2 Jun 19 $0 $0 -71%
Will Canada be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 W Jun 19 $1 −$1 -71%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $0 $0 -17%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Australia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $82 $0 +0%
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $16 $0 -1%
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor Jun 16 $25 −$4 -15%
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $34 +$1 +2%
Will the announcers say "Red Card" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 16 $22 −$1 -7%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia Jun 16 $10 −$2 -21%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W Jun 16 $29 −$2 -6%
Will the announcers say "Shot" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia Jun 16 $26 −$3 -11%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 15 $8 $0 -2%
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Japan be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 15 $38 −$4 -12%
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -17%
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $25 −$2 -7%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -46%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $9 −$1 -7%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Spencer Pratt call for 1st round recount? Jun 08 $23 −$3 -13%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Jun 08 $2 $0 -12%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 08 $9 −$4 -44%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1% and 1 Jun 08 $84 −$7 -8%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $32 −$5 -17%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 08 $17 −$2 -13%
Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $18 −$5 -28%
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $27 −$2 -7%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%? Jun 07 $24 −$1 -6%
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Con Jun 07 $2 −$1 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 -5%
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.125 Jun 07 $18 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 $0 -8%
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 06 $7 −$3 -39%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May? Jun 06 $14 −$1 -7%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 40.0 and 42.9 in June? Jun 06 $13 −$1 -11%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 06 $8 −$1 -12%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on May 28? Jun 05 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 28? Jun 05 $23 −$23 -100%
Will RH (RH) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 05 $10 −$5 -50%
FDA approves GSK & Spero Therapeutics' Tebipenem HBr? Jun 05 $10 −$4 -44%
Will Apple announce an Apple Smart Home Display during the WWDC 2026 k Jun 05 $7 −$3 -44%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be at least $25B at market close on IPO d Jun 04 $1 $0 -56%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $22B and $25B at market close Jun 04 $6 −$4 -55%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 02 $28 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL No 71¢ $6 19m
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $6 20m
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $93 1h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $95 8h
Will Switzerland be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will Switzerland be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 35h
Will Canada be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 W SELL Yes 0¢ $0 36h
Will Canada be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 W BUY Yes 1¢ $1 38h
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 2d
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $51 2d
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $51 2d
Will Australia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 46¢ $0 2d
Will Australia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 46¢ $14 2d
Will Australia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 46¢ $7 2d
Will Australia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 46¢ $10 2d
Will Australia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 48¢ $10 2d
Will Australia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 46¢ $40 2d
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 78¢ $28 3d
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 78¢ $31 3d
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 78¢ $17 3d
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 78¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 78¢ $82 3d
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 74¢ $15 4d
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $16 4d
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor SELL No 59¢ $21 4d
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 63¢ $35 4d
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $34 4d
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor BUY No 68¢ $25 4d
Will the announcers say "Red Card" during the England vs Croatia FIFA SELL Yes 54¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 194 history records