Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:01:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b7a…4c76 world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%15W / 18L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$9
other 15% −$2
politics 8% $0
economics 6% $0
sports 5% −$1
finance 4% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.8% -11.2% 0% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 15 +4.8% -5.2% 40% 7% -7.9%
≤90d 15 +4.8% -5.2% 40% 7% -7.9%
all 33 -0.8% -10.2% 45% 3% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 3% -8.8%
10% -18.8% 3% -17.5%
15% -26.6% 3% -25.5%
20% -33.8% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage446d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $38 −$1 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $9 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $74 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $41 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $14 +$10 +69%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $60 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 27 $2 $0 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? May 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? May 12 $16 $0 +1%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will egg prices be between $6.00 and $6.25 in April? May 09 $16 $0 +1%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +2%
UEFA Europa League: Tottenham vs. Bodø/Glimt (To Advance) May 08 $15 $0 -2%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? May 07 $16 $0 +1%
Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will FDP be part of the next German government? Apr 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 21 $21 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $37 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $37 5h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $15 8h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $22 8h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $38 12h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $31 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $8 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $38 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $16 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $22 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $38 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $9 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $32 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $41 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $41 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $41 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $16 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $9 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $16 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $41 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $20 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $20 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 48¢ $18 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $10 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records