Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:09:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b79…e2ad crypto 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$173 (-8%) realized −$173 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$391
sports 17% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -23.4% -30.7% 39% 39% -24.9%
≤30d 31 -23.4% -30.7% 39% 39% -24.9%
≤90d 31 -23.4% -30.7% 39% 39% -24.9%
all 31 -23.4% -30.7% 39% 39% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.7% 39% -24.9%
10% -37.3% 32% -32.1%
15% -43.4% 32% -38.7%
20% -48.9% 26% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$53 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$173
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage4d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $68 −$64 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $105 −$82 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $105 −$100 -96%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $41 −$28 -68%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$13 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$31 +295%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$17 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$40 +77%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $32 +$40 +126%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $202 +$100 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $270 −$270 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $269 +$44 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $202 +$36 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $137 +$128 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $214 −$214 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $171 +$180 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $68 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $23 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 13¢ $13 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 39¢ $41 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 25¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $11 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $15 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $23 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $42 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $21 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $38 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $21 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 29¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 70¢ $72 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records