Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:48:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b78…8325 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$20 (+5%) realized +$23 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day36.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$13
sports 10% −$11
world 1% $0
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -12.5% -20.8% 10% 10% -8.4%
≤30d 10 -12.5% -20.8% 10% 10% -8.4%
≤90d 10 -12.5% -20.8% 10% 10% -8.4%
all 10 -12.5% -20.8% 10% 10% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 10% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 10% -17.2%
15% -35.3% 10% -25.2%
20% -41.7% 10% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$3 · ×10.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Yes 10¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $255 −$10 -4%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$4 -28%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$6 -31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$1 -5%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $52 +$27 +52%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 18 $1 $0 -12%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 $0 -9%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -73%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 $0 -10%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 92¢ $172 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 93¢ $176 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No $12 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 10¢ $15 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $61 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 80¢ $62 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 3h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 62¢ $19 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 5h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 5h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 99¢ $79 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 62¢ $1 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 6h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 67¢ $51 6h
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? SELL Yes $0 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 6h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 6h
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? BUY Yes $1 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 6h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.59 · official $4.59 (match) · 36 history records