Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:37:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b77…00ea crypto 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$29 (-6%) realized −$107 · open +$78
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$257now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$75
other 35% +$78
politics 5% +$11
sports 4% −$2
world 1% +$26
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -22.4% -29.8% 0% 0% -37.0%
≤30d 2 -22.4% -29.8% 0% 0% -37.0%
≤90d 11 +44.6% +30.8% 27% 27% -32.9%
all 14 +36.0% +23.0% 36% 21% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.0% 21% -20.5%
10% +11.3% 14% -28.1%
15% +0.5% 14% -35.0%
20% -9.3% 14% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -55% → late +127% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$257
Realized−$107
Unrealized+$78
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage91d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 84¢ $178 $257 +$78 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 19 $70 −$26 -37%
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? Apr 07 $16 +$2 +13%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "God" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $10 +$11 +112%
Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $3 +$30 +1010%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 01 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" during Address to the Nation? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Proxy" or "Hezbollah" during Address to the Nation? Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Address to the Nation? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 20 $55 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 20 $53 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 20 $45 +$4 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $18 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $18 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $162 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 21¢ $44 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 30¢ $70 24h
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 75d
Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 75d
Will Trump say "God" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 78d
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 78d
Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation? SELL No 100¢ $33 78d
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? BUY Yes 72¢ $13 79d
Will Trump say "God" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 79d
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? BUY No 29¢ $3 79d
Will Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" during Address to the Nation? BUY No $2 79d
Will Trump say "Proxy" or "Hezbollah" during Address to the Nation? BUY No 27¢ $3 79d
Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation? BUY No $3 79d
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Address to the Nation? BUY No $1 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $55 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $55 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $55 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $55 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $53 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $49 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $45 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $256.63 · official $256.63 (match) · 27 history records