Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:04:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b76…5b54 world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$5
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% +$4
world 24% −$5
sports 17% −$8
other 13% +$7
finance 9% −$2
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.6% -11.0% 12% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 16 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 28 +1.4% -8.2% 29% 7% -9.2%
all 38 -1.2% -10.6% 32% 13% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 13% -9.7%
10% -19.1% 11% -18.3%
15% -27.0% 11% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 8% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 26
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage531d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $34 −$4 -12%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $33 $0 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $22 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $45 −$1 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $33 +$3 +8%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $31 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $215 −$1 -1%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 26 $96 +$3 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $190 −$2 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 22 $12 +$2 +18%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 19 $30 −$3 -9%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 18 $31 +$12 +38%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $273 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 11 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $274 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $274 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 10 $52 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $83 −$1 -1%
Milwaukee vs. Robert Morris Mar 04 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Edward Norton win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "A Complet Mar 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Feb 23 $18 $0 -1%
Will Solana dip to $160 by February 28 2025? Feb 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Feb 20 $3 $0 -4%
Will Ethereum hit $3000 by Friday? Feb 20 $17 +$1 +6%
Will Isiah Pacheco score a touchdown? Feb 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Ravens and Bills combine for 52 or more points? Feb 04 $7 +$6 +96%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Jan 23 $2 +$1 +53%
Will Tottenham beat Liverpool? Jan 09 $6 +$4 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $33 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $33 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $30 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $34 12h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $4 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $34 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $33 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $36 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $36 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $33 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $22 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $22 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $8 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $8 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $33 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $34 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $33 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $6 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $27 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $8 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 110 history records