Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:36:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6B 0x6b76…4867 crypto 605 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$359 (+1%) realized +$186 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate85%513W / 92L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$16
14 days−$78
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$186
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 +5.9% -4.2% 86% 40% -9.2%
≤30d 252 +3.9% -6.0% 85% 38% -10.7%
≤90d 605 +1.9% -7.8% 85% 34% -8.8%
all 605 +1.9% -7.8% 85% 34% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 34% -8.8%
10% -16.6% 12% -17.5%
15% -24.7% 5% -25.5%
20% -32.1% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$18 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$186
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses513 / 92
Open positions0
Markets (closed)605 / 605
History coverage72d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 605 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $86 $0 −$86 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1PM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12PM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $81 −$9 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $61 +$15 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $80 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $50 −$28 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $39 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$14 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $39 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $100 −$62 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $77 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $29 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $61 +$13 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $30 −$7 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $61 −$39 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$5 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $41 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $40 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $40 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $40 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $30 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $16 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $40 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1485 history records