Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:38:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6B 0x6b72…caa5 other 40 markets active 4h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+17%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%15W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$2
sports 49% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +5.6% -4.5% 41% 41% +7.7%
≤30d 37 +5.6% -4.5% 41% 41% +7.7%
≤90d 37 +5.6% -4.5% 41% 41% +7.7%
all 37 +5.6% -4.5% 41% 41% +7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 41% +7.7%
10% -13.6% 41% -2.6%
15% -22.0% 41% -12.0%
20% -29.6% 41% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses15 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage6d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 44¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Yes 39¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 +$1 +124%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$6 +114%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +250%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 +$2 +101%
Pedri: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Joshua Kimmich: 1+ assists Jun 14 $1 +$1 +114%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $2 +$2 +93%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Kai Havertz: 1+ assists Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Arda Güler: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +109%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ assists Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +101%
Cyle Larin: 1+ goals Jun 12 $1 +$6 +582%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +172%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 39¢ $2 4h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $2 4h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1 18h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $1 18h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $2 18h
Pedri: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $2 2d
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $2 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 2d
Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists BUY Yes 42¢ $1 3d
Kai Havertz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 36¢ $1 3d
Joshua Kimmich: 1+ assists BUY Yes 46¢ $1 3d
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $1 3d
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $1 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $2 3d
Arda Güler: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $1 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $2 3d
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3d
Granit Xhaka: 1+ assists BUY Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $1 3d
Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes $1 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $2 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $5 4d
Cyle Larin: 1+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.69 · official $8.69 (match) · 57 history records