Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:29:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b69…a8a7 crypto 258 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$548 (-5%) realized −$666 · open +$118
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%170W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,303now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$660
sports 9% +$41
other 6% −$42
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -4.2% -13.4% 38% 36% -10.8%
≤30d 50 -4.2% -13.4% 38% 36% -10.8%
≤90d 254 -6.1% -15.0% 67% 67% -17.5%
all 254 -6.1% -15.0% 67% 67% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 67% -17.5%
10% -23.2% 27% -25.4%
15% -30.6% 13% -32.6%
20% -37.4% 11% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$30 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$1,303
Realized−$666
Unrealized+$118
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses170 / 84
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions4
Markets (closed)254 / 258
History coverage86d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 254 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $971 $1,080 +$109 (+11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $61 $68 +$7 (+11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $53 $66 +$14 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $71 −$70 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $253 +$182 +72%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $112 −$111 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$11 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $13 −$12 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $68 +$22 +32%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 −$4 -51%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $13 +$7 +52%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $54 +$106 +199%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $31 −$21 -68%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $121 −$41 -34%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$19 +93%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 +$15 +276%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $14 −$10 -69%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $23 −$23 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $160 +$9 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $9 +$11 +114%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$14 +442%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $11 +$5 +46%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8 +$12 +144%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 +$29 +276%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 $0 -2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -99%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $7 −$6 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $11 +$29 +262%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $12 +$8 +73%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $12 −$12 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $10 45m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $61 56m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $30 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 96¢ $436 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $253 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $31 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $71 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up $1 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $11 24h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 24h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 62¢ $25 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $8 24h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $13 24h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 26h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $53 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 27h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL No 34¢ $10 27h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 50¢ $15 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $9 28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $25 28h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 25¢ $10 36h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $54 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 62¢ $80 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,303.28 · official $1,303.28 (match) · 728 history records