Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:32:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b67…c179 crypto 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 321d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$439 (-21%) realized −$439 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate38%20W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$230
7 days−$271
14 days−$271
30 days−$279
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$189
world 32% −$221
other 18% −$173
sports 2% +$32
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -21.2% -28.7% 32% 26% -32.2%
≤30d 25 -30.4% -37.0% 24% 20% -32.7%
≤90d 39 -18.9% -26.6% 33% 31% -33.6%
all 53 -12.8% -21.1% 38% 32% -33.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 32% -33.0%
10% -28.7% 30% -39.4%
15% -35.5% 26% -45.3%
20% -41.9% 23% -50.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$28 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

321d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$439
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses20 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 56
History coverage321d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 25 $156 −$156 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $72 −$70 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$45 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $102 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$32 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 25 $153 +$13 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$52 +101%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $206 −$93 -45%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND England vs. Ghana: Gha Jun 25 $15 +$35 +227%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 23 $6 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +58%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $15 −$3 -22%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 30 $1 −$1 -70%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 30 $1 $0 -42%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 30 $1 $0 -35%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 30 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 25 $26 +$21 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 25 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 25 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 25 $26 +$38 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 25 $25 +$37 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 25 $15 +$10 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 25 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 25 $31 +$14 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 25 $36 −$9 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 25 $5 +$3 +55%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 25 $238 −$179 -76%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 25 $23 +$10 +41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $171 $0 -0%
Houthi strike on Israel by August 31? Aug 24 $82 −$30 -37%
Will Valencia win on 2025-08-24? Aug 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-08-24? Aug 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw? Aug 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-08-24? Aug 24 $5 +$13 +269%
US strikes Yemen by August 31? Aug 24 $46 −$7 -15%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31? Aug 22 $58 −$39 -68%
Will Suez Canal traffic recover to pre-Houthi levels before September? Aug 18 $23 −$15 -65%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Aug 18 $19 +$1 +7%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Aug 17 $23 +$1 +3%
Israel strikes Yemen by August 31? Aug 17 $27 +$7 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $88 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $161 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $52 3h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to BUY 8¢ $17 6h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $113 7h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 DR Congo? AND Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Cr BUY 2¢ $5 42h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 42h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 42h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 42h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND England vs. Ghana: Gha BUY 30¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $8 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $16.50 · 149 history records