Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:40:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6B 0x6b67…ed03 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$42 (+10%) realized +$45 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$67
sports 31% +$68
crypto 24% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+49.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +64.9% +49.2% 57% 57% +2.2%
≤30d 7 +64.9% +49.2% 57% 57% +2.2%
≤90d 7 +64.9% +49.2% 57% 57% +2.2%
all 7 +64.9% +49.2% 57% 57% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +49.2% 57% +2.2%
10% +34.9% 57% -7.6%
15% +21.9% 57% -16.5%
20% +10.0% 43% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +65% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$34 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized+$45
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $87 $88 +$1 (+1%)
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Nuno Borges 30¢ 28¢ $45 $41 −$4 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 15 $30 −$2 -6%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $76 +$33 +44%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$33 +217%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $48 +$54 +114%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $10 +$20 +191%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $13 −$1 -6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $88 1h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz SELL Hubert Hurkacz 45¢ $29 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $109 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $76 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $49 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 7h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 46¢ $30 7h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Nuno Borges 30¢ $46 7h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Blinkova 34¢ $10 19h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 19h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $13 22h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 46¢ $48 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.96 · official $128.96 (match) · 15 history records