Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:44:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b65…3fab other 339 markets active 2h ago coverage 652d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,918 (+3%) realized +$1,864 · open +$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate36%118W / 213L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$830now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days−$132
14 days−$132
30 days−$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$1,354
other 11% +$292
politics 3% −$37
world 2% +$514
economics 1% +$55
culture 0% −$176
sports 0% −$50
tech 0% −$33
finance 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -11.1% -19.5% 52% 52% -22.9%
≤30d 21 -11.1% -19.5% 52% 52% -22.9%
≤90d 26 -15.0% -23.1% 50% 50% -31.3%
all 331 -9.2% -17.8% 36% 30% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 30% -7.0%
10% -25.7% 27% -15.9%
15% -32.9% 21% -24.0%
20% -39.5% 18% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$154 vs −$77 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

652d coverage
Net worth$830
Realized+$1,864
Unrealized+$54
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses118 / 213
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)331 / 339
History coverage652d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 331 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $250 $343 +$93 (+37%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $250 $231 −$19 (-8%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 86¢ 94¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $25 $12 −$13 (-52%)
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Yes 39¢ 16¢ $25 $10 −$15 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $55 +$18 +32%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $18 +$23 +125%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $37 +$25 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $54 −$52 -96%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$16 +31%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$18 +34%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$22 +42%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$37 +90%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$38 -95%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$38 -95%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $60 −$57 -95%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $45 +$23 +51%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 −$38 -95%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $45 −$43 -95%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $67 −$64 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $45 +$44 +97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 +$34 +162%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $45 −$43 -95%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $63 +$23 +36%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $500 +$653 +131%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 21? Apr 28 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
NATO x Russia military clash by March 31, 2026? Apr 18 $100 +$11 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? Mar 15 $25 +$6 +25%
Will Binance be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 01 $50 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 27? Jan 27 $2,400 −$470 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 23? Jan 24 $2,450 +$1,050 +43%
ICE shooter charged by March 31? Jan 18 $25 −$6 -24%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Jan 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 15? Jan 15 $420 −$420 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 13? Jan 13 $1,125 −$1,125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 12? Jan 13 $1,110 +$370 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 10? Jan 11 $3,500 +$184 +5%
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? Jan 10 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 9? Jan 10 $1,162 +$2,157 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 8? Jan 08 $188 −$188 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "China" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference o Jan 04 $5 +$3 +66%
Will Donald Trump say "oil" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Jan 04 $20 +$7 +33%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jan 04 $50 +$17 +33%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Jan 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "F-35" or "drone" or "helicopter" at least five Jan 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Maria" or "Corina" or "Machado" during his Mar- Jan 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Grok 4.20 released by December 31? Jan 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $38 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $57 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $38 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $55 21h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $18 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $37 21h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $54 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $51 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $51 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $51 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $40 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $60 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $41 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $40 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $45 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $45 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $67 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $45 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $45 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $21 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $63 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $262 13d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 42d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 36¢ $25 61d
Will Binance be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 5¢ $25 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $829.82 · official $829.82 (match) · 1293 history records