Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:30:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6B
0x6b60…9c7e
sports · 345 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3,696 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,647 · open +$207
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Net worth$2,950
Realized−$3,647
Unrealized+$207
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses139 / 196
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$469
Open positions10
Markets (closed)335 / 345
History coverage165d
Avg bet$589
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 10 History 335 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$2,539
14 days+$2,535
30 days+$4,121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 83¢ 96¢ $1,719 $1,980 +$260 (+15%)
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 27? Yes 81¢ 92¢ $607 $686 +$79 (+13%)
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 15? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $215 $226 +$11 (+5%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $58 $28 −$30 (-52%)
New pandemic in 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will voter turnout be 54-57% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 35¢ $28 $6 −$22 (-78%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%? Yes 80¢ 96¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? Yes $6 $5 −$1 (-9%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? Yes $86 $2 −$84 (-98%)
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? Yes $9 $1 −$8 (-88%)
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner PARIVISION 42¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%? Yes 22¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá? No 19¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 10¢ $68 $0 −$68 (-100%)
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Yes 58¢ $580 $0 −$580 (-100%)
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Yes 16¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will Italy be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $165 +$1 +1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $77 +$48 +62%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 14 $17 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $11,306 +$5,438 +48%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $9,739 −$3,385 -35%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 08 $257 +$373 +145%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 08 $20 +$80 +400%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá? May 31 $4 −$4 -97%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 24 $53 −$52 -98%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elec May 17 $3,762 +$1,084 +29%
Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $680 +$112 +16%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $592 −$580 -98%
Will Italy be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun May 16 $1,643 +$999 +61%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of t May 16 $82 +$23 +29%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 13 $35 −$1 -3%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elec May 12 $391 +$92 +24%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elec May 12 $51 +$7 +13%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $35 −$1 -4%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Apr 27 $1,665 −$1,665 -100%
Raptors vs. Knicks Apr 27 $912 +$11 +1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president Apr 24 $112 −$31 -28%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner Apr 23 $3 +$6 +188%
Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 Apr 22 $1,245 +$1,115 +90%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 216.5 Apr 22 $1,383 +$1,639 +119%
Wild vs. Blues Apr 20 $713 −$713 -100%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first round of the 2 Apr 15 $21 +$4 +18%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 14 $7 −$6 -85%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round Apr 14 $8 +$19 +230%
Canucks vs. Sharks Apr 13 $1,995 −$1,995 -100%
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 12 $421 −$338 -80%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 12 $117 +$7 +6%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 12 $115 +$7 +6%
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in second place in the first round of the 2 Apr 12 $68 −$68 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens Apr 12 $227 +$289 +127%
Devils vs. Red Wings Apr 12 $1,692 −$1,692 -100%
Capitals vs. Penguins Apr 12 $1,204 −$1,204 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Apr 11 $1,352 +$1,669 +124%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets: O/U 219.5 Apr 10 $45 −$1 -2%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Apr 10 $178 +$1 +0%
Spread: Magic (-5.5) Apr 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5) Apr 10 $1,741 +$694 +40%
Timberwolves vs. Magic: O/U 227.5 Apr 10 $1,412 −$1,412 -100%
Spread: Pelicans (-10.5) Apr 08 $946 −$946 -100%
Lightning vs. Senators: O/U 6.5 Apr 08 $1,481 +$1,542 +104%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $1,046 −$1,046 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $1,335 +$1,717 +129%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 238.5 Apr 06 $4 $0 -9%
Spread: Magic (-3.5) Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 83% −$7,389
politics 15% +$4,444
other 2% +$101
world 0% −$580
crypto 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No $22 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No $3 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No $4 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No $28 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $54 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No $54 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $53 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $2 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No $5 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No $1 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No $1 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No $7 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No $1 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No $14 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No $1 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No $2 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No $11 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No $13 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $1 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $0 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $1 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $54 5h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY Yes 45¢ $9 13h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY Yes 44¢ $36 13h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY Yes 43¢ $54 13h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY Yes 42¢ $10 13h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL Yes 17¢ $8 14h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 15h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $62 16h
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele SELL Yes $0 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +65.2% +49.5% 75% 50% +1.1%
≤30d 16 +16.0% +5.0% 62% 50% +3.6%
≤90d 116 -5.8% -14.7% 40% 33% -13.7%
all 335 -2.6% -11.9% 41% 33% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 33% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 30% -19.7%
15% -28.0% 28% -27.4%
20% -35.0% 25% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,950.37 · official $2,950.37 (match) · 3338 history records