Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:07:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b5e…8c1b crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$73 (-16%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$214
other 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-68.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -64.6% -68.0% 12% 12% -51.6%
≤30d 17 -64.6% -68.0% 12% 12% -51.6%
≤90d 17 -64.6% -68.0% 12% 12% -51.6%
all 17 -64.6% -68.0% 12% 12% -51.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -68.0% 12% -51.6%
10% -71.0% 6% -56.2%
15% -73.8% 6% -60.5%
20% -76.4% 6% -64.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -73% → late -57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$26 · ×3.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage2d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $58 +$167 +289%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 22 $17 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 47h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $16 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $8 2d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records