Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:27:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b58…6419 crypto 559 markets active 0h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%541W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$7
14 days−$1
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$9
other 5% +$4
finance 5% −$19
tech 3% −$16
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +2.7% -7.1% 100% 0% -6.8%
≤30d 94 -0.8% -10.2% 97% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 517 -0.9% -10.3% 97% 0% -10.2%
all 557 -0.6% -10.1% 97% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses541 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)557 / 559
History coverage93d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 557 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Down 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Up 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 9? Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 9? Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 11PM ET Jun 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 2PM ET Jun 04 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 6AM ET Jun 03 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4PM ET Jun 02 $9 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 02 $14 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 8PM ET Jun 02 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8PM ET Jun 02 $3 $0 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 1? Jun 02 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 26h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 34h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 11? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.99 · official $9.99 (match) · 1128 history records