Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:39:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b55…b1ce other 701 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,726 (-12%) realized −$3,819 · open +$93
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%261W / 341L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day31.9pace
Fees−$283est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$2,780now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$311
7 days+$188
14 days−$1,047
30 days−$2,280
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$4,014
other 38% +$776
politics 4% −$51
world 2% −$285
crypto 0% −$36
tech 0% −$16
culture 0% −$6
economics 0% +$5
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +30.8% +18.4% 57% 57% +7.0%
≤30d 163 +28.0% +15.8% 59% 57% -17.0%
≤90d 602 -4.9% -14.0% 43% 41% -17.3%
all 602 -4.9% -14.0% 43% 41% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 41% -17.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 36% -25.3%
15% -29.7% 31% -32.5%
20% -36.6% 24% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -24% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$37 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$2,780
Realized−$3,819
Unrealized+$93
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses261 / 341
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$283
Open positions99
Markets (closed)602 / 701
History coverage46d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day31.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 99 History 602 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 56¢ 61¢ $335 $366 +$31 (+9%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $420 $337 −$83 (-20%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 86¢ $130 $271 +$141 (+108%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $165 $170 +$5 (+3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $165 $166 +$1 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $118 $118 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $102 $105 +$3 (+3%)
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? No 63¢ 91¢ $63 $91 +$28 (+45%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 64¢ $65 $69 +$4 (+6%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $52 $44 −$8 (-16%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 73¢ 84¢ $33 $39 +$5 (+15%)
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 47¢ 34¢ $45 $32 −$13 (-28%)
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 Pacquiao 38¢ 38¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 69¢ $15 $26 +$11 (+75%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 30¢ $15 $24 +$9 (+61%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 49¢ 42¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-13%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 261 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +40%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 18 $56 −$3 -6%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $219 +$267 +122%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$16 +39%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $35 +$16 +47%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $5 +$4 +78%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election Jun 15 $42 −$13 -32%
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Jun 15 $20 −$5 -24%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jun 15 $5 −$1 -19%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $111 −$110 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $111 −$110 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $111 +$39 +35%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$31 +301%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $146 +$38 +26%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1,937 −$1,465 -76%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $152 +$262 +172%
Will Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 Fr Jun 07 $8 −$1 -16%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $60 −$20 -34%
Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) win 27-29 Jun 06 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the seco Jun 05 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $27 +$8 +31%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $254 −$250 -98%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 02 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $41 −$2 -6%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $15 $0 -0%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? Jun 02 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 02 $5 +$1 +21%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $5 $0 -7%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $6 −$1 -20%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $77 −$10 -13%
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Jun 02 $14 −$2 -17%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 01 $43 −$43 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 01 $102 −$13 -12%
Will Trump say "Pig" in May? Jun 01 $7 +$3 +43%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $15 −$1 -9%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $5 +$1 +21%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $122 +$101 +83%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $709 −$700 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $76 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 41¢ $28 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 56¢ $52 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $103 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 62¢ $8 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,780.36 · official $2,779.04 (match) · 1801 history records