Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:15:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b54…dc20 crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (124 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$266 (-4%) realized −$131 · open −$135
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate23%5W / 17L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$305per market
Trades / day124.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,865now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$737
politics 43% −$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (124 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-46.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -40.8% -46.4% 23% 9% -28.5%
≤30d 22 -40.8% -46.4% 23% 9% -28.5%
≤90d 22 -40.8% -46.4% 23% 9% -28.5%
all 22 -40.8% -46.4% 23% 9% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover124.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.4% 9% -28.5%
10% ← realistic here -51.5% 5% -35.4%
15% -56.2% 5% -41.6%
20% -60.5% 5% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 87% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -36% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$48 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,865
Realized−$131
Unrealized−$135
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses5 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$305
Trades / day124.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? No 76¢ 73¢ $3,000 $2,865 −$135 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$13 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $32 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$11 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $24 +$31 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$8 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$5 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$8 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $16 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $46 −$25 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $503 −$500 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $620 −$51 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $511 −$100 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $503 +$32 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $501 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 21 $501 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $558 −$58 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $13 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $19 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $6 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 56m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,864.94 · official $2,825.69 · 132 history records