Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:03:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b54…a860 crypto 1216 markets active 0h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$478 (-2%) realized −$473 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%671W / 544L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$3
14 days−$58
30 days−$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$568
sports 23% −$532
other 3% +$241
world 0% −$65
politics 0% −$7
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -5.2% -14.2% 51% 48% -11.4%
≤30d 364 -17.2% -25.1% 51% 45% -16.4%
≤90d 1174 -10.1% -18.7% 55% 48% -15.0%
all 1215 -9.2% -17.9% 55% 48% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 48% -12.9%
10% -25.7% 40% -21.2%
15% -32.9% 31% -28.9%
20% -39.5% 23% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$473
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses671 / 544
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1215 / 1216
History coverage142d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 250 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +111%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +166%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $4 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $5 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $5 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $1 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $2 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $8 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $2 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $2 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $2 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $3 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 3191 history records