Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:32:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6B 0x6b53…41e2 crypto 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 107d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%1W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$811per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$3
politics 25% −$4
economics 25% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
all 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses1 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage107d
Avg bet$811
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $744 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 26 $745 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $747 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 15 $673 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 01 $1,495 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $749 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $751 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 30? Mar 30 $752 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 17? Mar 17 $752 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 16? Mar 16 $753 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 11? Mar 11 $754 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $743 28m
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $744 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $744 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $745 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $746 9d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $747 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $673 23d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $746 25d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $747 25d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $747 27d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $748 27d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $748 27d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $749 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 2? SELL No 100¢ $750 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $751 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $751 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $752 88d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $752 101d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $752 101d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $752 102d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $753 102d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 11? SELL No 100¢ $753 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 11? BUY No 100¢ $754 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records