Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:43:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6B 0x6b53…1fe3 sports 246 markets active 1h ago coverage 577d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$626 (-2%) realized −$579 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate59%145W / 99L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$229est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$75
14 days+$72
30 days−$245
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$769
crypto 13% +$708
other 7% −$721
politics 1% −$112
tech 0% −$5
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +61.5% +46.2% 75% 50% +10.5%
≤30d 55 -1.4% -10.8% 65% 45% -16.0%
≤90d 195 -7.1% -16.0% 64% 50% -13.4%
all 244 -6.6% -15.5% 59% 48% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 48% -12.2%
10% -23.6% 34% -20.6%
15% -31.0% 24% -28.3%
20% -37.7% 14% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$69 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

577d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$579
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses145 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$229
Open positions2
Markets (closed)244 / 246
History coverage577d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Emma Navarro 54¢ 39¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-28%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Kimberly Birrell Peyton Stearns 64¢ 2¢ $40 $1 −$39 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova Jun 21 $100 +$10 +10%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 21 $71 −$70 -99%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $16 +$60 +365%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Jun 20 $61 +$47 +77%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $51 +$30 +60%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$18 +178%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $15 −$15 -99%
Modena: Tamara Zidansek vs Federica Urgesi Jun 11 $15 +$3 +23%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 09 $15 −$1 -3%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $10 +$4 +44%
Libema Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Lin Zhu Jun 08 $7 +$5 +67%
Libema Open, Qualification: Yue Yuan vs Robin Montgomery Jun 06 $81 −$80 -99%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 06 $71 +$17 +25%
Birmingham: Elias Ymer vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 03 $40 +$16 +40%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 03 $40 +$12 +31%
Birmingham: Tristan Schoolkate vs Arthur Fery Jun 02 $35 +$2 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $31 −$30 -98%
Birmingham: Elvina Kalieva vs Talia Gibson Jun 01 $40 −$40 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $40 +$15 +36%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $50 −$50 -99%
ITF Gimcheon: Dong Ju Kim vs Matthew Dellavedova May 31 $40 +$7 +17%
Chisinau: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Stefanos Sakellaridis May 30 $35 +$5 +15%
ITF Oliva: Cindy Langlais vs Franziska Sziedat May 30 $30 +$5 +16%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $119 −$56 -47%
ITF Grado: Pierluigi Basile vs Lucio Ratti May 30 $61 +$23 +38%
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Claire Liu May 29 $45 +$17 +38%
ITF Bol: Iva Primorac vs Aurora Zantedeschi May 28 $60 −$11 -18%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 27 $50 +$19 +38%
Roland Garros ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Andrey Rublev May 27 $40 +$10 +25%
Kosice: Lilian Marmousez vs Taro Daniel May 27 $37 +$3 +9%
Roland Garros WTA: Tamara Korpatsch vs Xinyu Wang May 27 $41 −$40 -99%
Little Rock: Johannus Monday vs Braden Shick May 27 $30 +$6 +21%
ITF Wichita: Malaika Rapolu vs Maria Sholokhova May 26 $101 −$28 -28%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Anhelina Kalinina vs Petra Marcinko May 26 $181 +$17 +10%
Chisinau: Marko Topo vs Lorenzo Giustino May 26 $65 +$6 +10%
Kosice: Jay Clarke vs Milos Karol May 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Kosice: Peter Fajta vs Paulo Dos Santos May 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Kosice: Tomasz Berkieta vs Sandro Kopp May 26 $30 +$15 +48%
Roland Garros ATP: Eliot Spizzirri vs Frances Tiafoe May 25 $202 +$11 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Marton Fucsovics vs Matteo Berrettini May 25 $151 +$32 +21%
ITF Kayseri: Alana Subasic vs Irem Kurt May 25 $160 +$8 +5%
Roland Garros WTA: Katie Volynets vs Clara Burel May 24 $150 +$9 +6%
Roland Garros WTA: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Caty McNally May 24 $60 +$6 +10%
Roland Garros WTA: Lilli Tagger vs Xinyu Wang May 24 $50 +$12 +24%
ITF Gaborone: Elena Jamshidi vs Marilouise Van Zyl May 24 $56 −$55 -99%
ITF Kayseri: Irem Kurt vs Demi Tran May 24 $41 +$7 +16%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Emma Navarro May 23 $291 −$14 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 54¢ $30 46m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Kimberly Birre BUY Peyton Stearns 64¢ $40 51m
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova SELL Solana Sierra 100¢ $110 56m
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Solana Sierra 91¢ $100 1h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Diane Parry 63¢ $71 2h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 21¢ $16 23h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray SELL Matteo Arnaldi 97¢ $108 23h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray BUY Matteo Arnaldi 54¢ $61 25h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Alex de Minaur 37¢ $20 2d
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg SELL Genaro Alberto Olivieri 96¢ $81 4d
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 60¢ $51 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 57¢ $28 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 5d
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw BUY Pedro Martinez 73¢ $15 9d
Modena: Tamara Zidansek vs Federica Urgesi BUY Tamara Zidansek 81¢ $15 12d
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard BUY Tommy Paul 51¢ $15 12d
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce SELL Martin Landaluce 99¢ $15 12d
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 68¢ $10 12d
Libema Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Lin Zhu BUY Katie Volynets 59¢ $7 14d
Libema Open, Qualification: Yue Yuan vs Robin Montgomery BUY Yue Yuan 67¢ $81 14d
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova SELL Alexandra Eala 93¢ $5 14d
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova SELL Alexandra Eala 93¢ $80 14d
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova SELL Alexandra Eala 93¢ $3 14d
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova BUY Alexandra Eala 74¢ $71 15d
Birmingham: Elias Ymer vs Christopher O'Connell SELL Elias Ymer 100¢ $46 17d
Birmingham: Elias Ymer vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Elias Ymer 65¢ $30 17d
Birmingham: Elias Ymer vs Christopher O'Connell SELL Elias Ymer 63¢ $10 17d
Birmingham: Elias Ymer vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Elias Ymer 59¢ $10 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.76 · official $23.10 (match) · 585 history records