Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:48:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b50…c9ba weather 539 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,862 (+4%) realized +$2,826 · open +$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate57%320W / 240L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day62.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$358
7 days+$675
14 days+$1,672
30 days+$2,148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$3,009
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 148 -23.4% -30.7% 56% 15% -7.5%
≤30d 370 -14.9% -23.0% 58% 24% -5.9%
≤90d 560 -6.7% -15.6% 57% 29% -5.8%
all 560 -6.7% -15.6% 57% 29% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 29% -5.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 18% -14.8%
15% -31.0% 12% -23.1%
20% -37.8% 9% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$21 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$1,176
Realized+$2,826
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses320 / 240
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)560 / 539
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$131
Trades / day62.8
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 560 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? Yes 93¢ 96¢ $718 $743 +$25 (+3%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 17? No 84¢ 97¢ $152 $177 +$24 (+16%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 17? Yes 68¢ 62¢ $151 $139 −$13 (-8%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 17? Yes 14¢ 40¢ $31 $87 +$56 (+181%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 17? No 61¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 151 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on April 22? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 22? Jun 17 $1 +$3 +511%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on April 21? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on April 23? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 21? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 23? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on April 21? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 22? Jun 17 $16 −$21 -127%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 5°C on April 24? Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on April 23? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 21? Jun 17 $71 −$106 -151%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 20? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 23? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 21? Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on April 22? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 23? Jun 17 $59 −$60 -102%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 21? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 20? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or higher on April 23? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 22? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 22? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on April 22? Jun 17 $6 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 20? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 19? Jun 17 $0 −$3 -5075%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on April 21? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $285 +$6 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,112 +$76 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $416 +$141 +34%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $346 +$14 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $72 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $196 −$96 -49%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,216 +$131 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $506 +$40 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $71 −$26 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $87 +$20 +23%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $235 −$35 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $511 −$510 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $314 +$4 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 −$1 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $893 +$37 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $219 +$4 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $772 +$111 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $498 +$41 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $335 +$17 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $209 +$21 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $243 +$29 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $832 +$34 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 9m
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $17 9m
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 11m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $29 32m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $39 32m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $94 32m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $1 32m
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 33m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $9 36m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $245 43m
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $14 50m
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 88¢ $27 53m
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 88¢ $2 53m
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 87¢ $25 53m
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 53m
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 81¢ $28 53m
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 81¢ $15 53m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $136 57m
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 55¢ $40 58m
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 47¢ $14 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 45¢ $2 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $28 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 90¢ $13 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 87¢ $52 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 85¢ $61 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $116 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,175.70 · official $1,175.71 (match) · 3500 history records