Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:36:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b4d…7db5 other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$3 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%17W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$2
other 24% $0
politics 6% $0
sports 6% $0
weather 3% $0
crypto 3% −$2
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.9% -10.3% 20% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.9% -10.3% 15% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 13 -0.9% -10.3% 15% 0% -9.8%
all 47 -2.7% -12.0% 36% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 2% -9.8%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses17 / 30
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage472d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 50¢ 54¢ $41 $44 +$3 (+7%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $1 $0 -8%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $43 −$1 -2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $10 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $42 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 27 $10 $0 -2%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 22 $11 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 20 $11 $0 -0%
Will Al Gore be named in Epstein files? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Israel strike on Iran on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July? Jun 18 $11 $0 -1%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 17 $1 $0 -31%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before July? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Jun 07 $11 $0 +1%
Will the US add less than 50k jobs in May? Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $10 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 06 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 28? Mar 28 $13 $0 -1%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will a #1 seed lose in the first round of NCAA Tournament? Mar 21 $12 $0 +2%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 17 $1 $0 +15%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $10 $0 -0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 14 $3 $0 -15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on March 11? Mar 12 $14 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 50¢ $41 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 18h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 18h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 54¢ $45 18h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $42 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $35 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $35 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $32 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $42 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 96¢ $42 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 98¢ $43 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $11 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $28 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $39 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $43 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $43 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $13 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $23 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $39 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $28 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $8 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $20 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.14 · official $43.87 (match) · 141 history records