Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:43:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b45…d196 sports 292 markets active 0h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,533 (-10%) realized −$7,527 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%104W / 185L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$248per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$513est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$159
14 days−$176
30 days−$1,543
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$5,458
crypto 11% −$2,536
other 0% +$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +13.1% +2.4% 30% 30% -60.7%
≤30d 59 -24.7% -31.9% 31% 31% -29.5%
≤90d 198 -28.9% -35.7% 31% 31% -28.5%
all 289 -18.3% -26.1% 36% 33% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 33% -19.5%
10% -33.1% 29% -27.2%
15% -39.6% 27% -34.2%
20% -45.5% 24% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -21% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$158 vs −$132 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$7,527
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses104 / 185
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$513
Open positions3
Markets (closed)289 / 292
History coverage148d
Avg bet$248
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 289 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 166.5 Under 65¢ 62¢ $90 $86 −$4 (-5%)
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 Over 54¢ 12¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 178.5 Under 53¢ 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$16 +306%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$30 +312%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 168.5 Jun 19 $81 −$80 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$17 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET Jun 18 $70 −$37 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $30 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $13 +$16 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11AM ET Jun 09 $11 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 09 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 08 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 08 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $43 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$4 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4PM ET Jun 05 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4PM ET Jun 03 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3PM ET Jun 03 $130 −$124 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 03 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1PM ET Jun 02 $8 +$4 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10AM ET Jun 01 $161 −$155 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9AM ET Jun 01 $130 −$78 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12AM ET May 31 $521 −$500 -96%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $763 −$8 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4PM ET May 30 $26 +$21 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3PM ET May 30 $443 +$317 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2PM ET May 30 $826 −$504 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1PM ET May 30 $456 −$440 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12PM ET May 30 $135 −$130 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 30? May 30 $100 +$266 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11PM ET May 30 $101 −$97 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10PM ET May 30 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9PM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4PM ET May 29 $367 +$297 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3PM ET May 29 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11AM ET May 29 $170 +$137 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10AM ET May 29 $263 −$255 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9AM ET May 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $66 +$116 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 29 $139 +$116 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET May 28 $8 +$13 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12PM ET May 28 $415 +$481 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11AM ET May 28 $234 −$225 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7PM ET May 28 $131 +$105 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 SELL Over 5¢ $7 2m
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 BUY Over 54¢ $71 32m
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 178.5 SELL Under 26¢ $12 39m
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 178.5 BUY Under 53¢ $25 1h
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 166.5 BUY Under 65¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $15 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $21 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $16 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 25h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 168.5 BUY Under 43¢ $81 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $33 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $70 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $35 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $30 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $6 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $7 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $13 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $16 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $16 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.54 · official $86.54 (match) · 1135 history records