Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:27:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b45…d825 world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 329d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$120 (-13%) realized −$120 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate49%18W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$4
sports 24% −$114
other 24% −$1
politics 8% $0
culture 4% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.7% -10.2% 33% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 11 -0.9% -10.3% 36% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 13 -2.2% -11.6% 38% 0% -10.9%
all 37 -2.0% -11.3% 49% 0% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 0% -21.6%
10% -19.8% 0% -29.1%
15% -27.6% 0% -35.9%
20% -34.7% 0% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$11 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

329d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses18 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage329d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 21 $15 +$1 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $36 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $21 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $73 −$3 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $11 −$1 -7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $3 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $86 −$4 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $2 $0 -20%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $40 $0 +0%
Jock Landale: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Mar 16 $201 −$114 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 12 $36 $0 +1%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 11 $32 $0 -0%
Trump x Epstein files made public by July 31? Aug 10 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 25–August 1? Aug 10 $16 +$1 +8%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 01 $27 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 31 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 31 $1 $0 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 31 $6 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jul 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during July Press Conference? Jul 29 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $37 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $37 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $16 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $36 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $36 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $18 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $33 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $6 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $27 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $36 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $38 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $13 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $24 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $37 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $11 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $18 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $6 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records