Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:37:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b44…be1e sports 485 markets active 2h ago coverage 53d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11,651 (+6%) realized +$11,644 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate39%161W / 251L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$402per market
Trades / day61.9pace
Fees−$1,575est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$28,282now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 53d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$889
sports 29% −$469
other 22% +$2,127
politics 16% −$487
tech 0% +$3
finance 0% +$1
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +14.6% +3.7% 48% 17% -11.5%
≤30d 109 -1.2% -10.6% 53% 15% -7.1%
≤90d 412 +3.5% -6.4% 39% 12% -9.4%
all 412 +3.5% -6.4% 39% 12% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 12% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 8% -18.1%
15% -23.5% 6% -26.0%
20% -31.0% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$535) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$36 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$28,282
Realized+$11,644
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses161 / 251
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$1,575
Open positions131
Markets (closed)412 / 485
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$402
Trades / day61.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 131 History 412 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $3,984 $4,646 +$662 (+17%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 36¢ 44¢ $1,765 $2,143 +$378 (+21%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 33¢ 81¢ $803 $1,983 +$1,180 (+147%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-14 House seat? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $930 $935 +$5 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-03 House seat? No 91¢ 90¢ $777 $773 −$4 (-1%)
Will the Republican Party win the TN-04 House seat? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $777 $773 −$4 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-04 House seat? No 92¢ 90¢ $777 $764 −$13 (-2%)
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? Yes 27¢ 18¢ $1,115 $761 −$354 (-32%)
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-05 House seat? No 89¢ 87¢ $777 $760 −$17 (-2%)
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? Yes 17¢ 28¢ $413 $677 +$265 (+64%)
Abstract FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 76¢ 83¢ $613 $666 +$53 (+9%)
Will the Republican Party win the MA-07 House seat? No 96¢ 96¢ $656 $654 −$2 (-0%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 25¢ 7¢ $2,239 $637 −$1,602 (-72%)
Will the Republican Party win the GA-05 House seat? No 96¢ 95¢ $555 $552 −$3 (-1%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? No 51¢ 36¢ $664 $473 −$191 (-29%)
Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? No 67¢ 74¢ $402 $446 +$44 (+11%)
Will the Republican Party win the CA-34 House seat? No 97¢ 96¢ $444 $440 −$4 (-1%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $940 $439 −$501 (-53%)
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $428 $432 +$4 (+1%)
Will the Republican Party win the FL-26 House seat? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $389 $386 −$3 (-1%)
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? No 81¢ 77¢ $404 $385 −$19 (-5%)
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? No 97¢ 84¢ $436 $377 −$59 (-13%)
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 80¢ 78¢ $371 $363 −$8 (-2%)
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? No 86¢ 85¢ $338 $335 −$3 (-1%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? Yes 35¢ 100¢ $114 $321 +$207 (+182%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Republican Party win the KY-04 House seat? Jun 20 $454 +$5 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $371 +$7 +2%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 19 $198 +$3 +2%
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 Jun 19 $180 $0 +0%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $358 +$76 +21%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $820 −$279 -34%
Will the Republican Party win the MN-05 House seat? Jun 18 $15 $0 +2%
Will the Republican Party win the VA-11 House seat? Jun 18 $1 +$2 +150%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 17 $18 +$36 +200%
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? Jun 17 $111 −$6 -6%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 16 $444 +$54 +12%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $850 $0 +0%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $540 −$32 -6%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $528 −$9 -2%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $678 −$20 -3%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $770 +$11 +2%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $218 $0 -0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $273 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $13 $0 -1%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $258 −$6 -2%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 15 $322 −$7 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $155 +$91 +59%
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? Jun 14 $96 +$9 +9%
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-06 House seat? Jun 11 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 11 $42 $0 +1%
Will Robert Lee be the Republican nominee for SC-04? Jun 10 $41 +$1 +2%
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-19 House seat? Jun 08 $777 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore announce a Presidential run before 2027? Jun 07 $11 −$5 -48%
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027? Jun 07 $93 +$100 +108%
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle? Jun 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-06 House seat? Jun 05 $204 +$6 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $111 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? Jun 05 $111 +$4 +4%
Will the Republican Party win the CA-06 House seat? Jun 05 $777 +$10 +1%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $222 +$4 +2%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $542 +$10 +2%
Anthropic’s “supply chain risk” designation removed by May 31? Jun 02 $147 +$3 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 02 $464 +$39 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $510 −$23 -5%
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-03 House seat? Jun 01 $777 +$8 +1%
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-08 House seat? Jun 01 $777 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 01 $3,489 −$434 -12%
Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in May 2026? Jun 01 $57 +$1 +3%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? Jun 01 $304 −$189 -62%
Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 01 $61 −$5 -8%
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 01 $102 −$20 -20%
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 01 $144 −$16 -11%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 01 $508 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $98 1h
Will Adam Schiff be arrested before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $219 2h
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 BUY Yes 26¢ $47 7h
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 BUY Yes 26¢ $7 8h
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $133 12h
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 15h
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 17h
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $288 18h
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $148 18h
Will Adam Schiff be arrested before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $222 22h
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 BUY Yes 26¢ $15 25h
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 BUY Yes 26¢ $2 27h
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 NL West title? BUY No 4¢ $8 28h
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 NL East title? BUY No 24¢ $11 28h
Will Houston Astros win the 2026 AL West title? SELL No 91¢ $16 28h
Will Oakland Athletics win the 2026 AL West title? BUY No 89¢ $80 28h
Will the Republican Party win the IN-06 House seat? BUY No 6¢ $5 31h
Will the Republican Party win the KY-04 House seat? SELL Yes 90¢ $98 33h
Will the Republican Party win the KY-04 House seat? SELL Yes 90¢ $14 33h
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $150 34h
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $3 38h
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 BUY Yes 26¢ $3 39h
Will the Republican Party win the CA-32 House seat? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 41h
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 42h
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 43h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend SELL No 84¢ $180 45h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend SELL No 84¢ $21 45h
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 SELL Yes 75¢ $180 45h
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 BUY Yes 26¢ $1 46h
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $70 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28,281.97 · official $28,289.12 (match) · 3500 history records