Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:53:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6B 0x6b43…78f9 weather 148 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+0%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%137W / 9L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$7
14 days+$11
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$22
politics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
other 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 82 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 135 +0.0% -9.5% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 146 -0.0% -9.5% 94% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×28.57 per $1 lost it wins $28.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses137 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)146 / 148
History coverage140d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $96 $96 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? Jun 20 $545 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 18 $547 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $542 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $439 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 15 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $106 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $447 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 13? Jun 14 $254 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $424 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 12 $460 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $239 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $309 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 10 $167 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $383 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 9? Jun 09 $541 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 8? Jun 09 $538 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 7? Jun 07 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C or below on June 7? Jun 07 $386 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 6? Jun 07 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $184 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $249 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $82 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 5? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $251 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 5? Jun 05 $186 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $106 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 05 $441 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $98 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $277 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 4? Jun 04 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 4? Jun 04 $78 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 4? Jun 04 $82 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 3? Jun 04 $320 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on June 3? Jun 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 04 $94 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $117 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $96 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $545 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $185 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $362 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $542 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $114 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $115 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $439 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $106 6d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $447 6d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $254 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $99 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $424 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $90 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $30 7d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $173 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.71 · official $95.71 (match) · 328 history records