Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6B 0x6b41…30ea other 16 markets active 4d ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$217 (-46%) realized −$217 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip
Net edge-69%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$138
economics 9% −$40
crypto 9% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-68.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -7.1% -16.0% 40% 40% -3.0%
≤30d 5 -7.1% -16.0% 40% 40% -3.0%
≤90d 5 -7.1% -16.0% 40% 40% -3.0%
all 16 -65.3% -68.6% 12% 12% -52.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -68.6% 12% -52.5%
10% -71.6% 12% -57.0%
15% -74.4% 12% -61.2%
20% -76.9% 12% -65.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$21 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$217
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage139d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $42 +$45 +106%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $53 −$52 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +158%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $151 −$93 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026 Jan 31 $57 −$5 -9%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026? Jan 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026 Jan 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026 Jan 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 395m Jan 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 390m Jan 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on January 26? Jan 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on January 26? Jan 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $87 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $42 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $53 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 5d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 137d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $52 137d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026 SELL Yes 58¢ $52 137d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026 BUY Yes 64¢ $57 137d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $58 137d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $99 137d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 140d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 140d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 142d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026 BUY Yes 2¢ $10 142d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026 BUY Yes 4¢ $10 142d
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 395m BUY Yes 1¢ $10 143d
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 390m BUY Yes 1¢ $10 143d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on January 26? BUY No 1¢ $20 143d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on January 26? BUY No 1¢ $20 143d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records