Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:34:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6B
0x6b41…b5ce
weather · 54 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$42 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$44 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$41
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses27 / 24
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)51 / 54
History coverage20d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 3 History 51 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$9
14 days−$23
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? No 93¢ 90¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? No 90¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? No 94¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Xtreme Gaming 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? No 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Anhelina Kalinina vs Diane Parry Anhelina Kalinina 71¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Team Liquid 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? No 75¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? No 82¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score No 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Thunder 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200? No 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Philadelphia Phillies 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners Arizona Diamondbacks 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers St. Louis Cardinals 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $45 +$11 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 11 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $63 +$1 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $5 $0 -8%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 03 $6 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 29? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 30 $5 +$1 +23%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $5 +$8 +158%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - Esports World C May 28 $5 $0 +7%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $5 −$5 -99%
FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: Both Teams to Score May 28 $5 $0 +1%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 28 $5 +$8 +152%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $5 +$3 +57%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 26 $5 +$4 +86%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $10 +$8 +79%
Roland Garros WTA: Anhelina Kalinina vs Diane Parry May 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 24 $5 +$4 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 49% +$3
sports 26% −$22
world 15% +$1
crypto 6% −$8
finance 3% −$11
other 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $20 6h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 1¢ $8 14h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 1¢ $1 14h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 1¢ $1 14h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 0¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $6 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $6 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $56 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 80¢ $40 30h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 81¢ $2 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 90¢ $2 31h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 87¢ $2 31h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 80¢ $3 31h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 82¢ $3 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 89¢ $3 31h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 87¢ $3 31h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 78¢ $2 31h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 11 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? BUY No 77¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -27.0% -33.9% 62% 38% -12.7%
≤30d 51 -26.3% -33.3% 53% 35% -19.8%
≤90d 51 -26.3% -33.3% 53% 35% -19.8%
all 51 -26.3% -33.3% 53% 35% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.3% 35% -19.8%
10% -39.7% 22% -27.4%
15% -45.5% 14% -34.4%
20% -50.8% 14% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.29 · official $41.29 (match) · 96 history records