Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:16:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6B 0x6b3f…9b74 crypto 348 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6,549 (-5%) realized −$6,446 · open −$103
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%129W / 207L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$390per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$9,897now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 160d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$12,752
other 12% −$2,411
sports 8% +$1,723
world 5% −$3,046
politics 1% +$64
economics 0% −$255
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -82.7% -84.4% 9% 9% -39.2%
≤30d 22 -82.7% -84.4% 9% 9% -39.2%
≤90d 47 -24.2% -31.5% 43% 40% -13.4%
all 336 -24.4% -31.6% 38% 36% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.6% 36% -22.4%
10% -38.1% 33% -29.8%
15% -44.1% 30% -36.6%
20% -49.6% 24% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -30% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$225 vs −$220 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$9,897
Realized−$6,446
Unrealized−$103
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses129 / 207
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions12
Markets (closed)336 / 348
History coverage160d
Avg bet$390
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 336 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $8,109 $8,046 −$63 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $700 $696 −$4 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $120 $101 −$19 (-16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $50 $69 +$19 (+38%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-13%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 155 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $35 −$34 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $46 −$44 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $51 −$7 -13%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $72 −$70 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $272 +$108 +40%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2,003 +$656 +33%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $625 −$610 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $421 −$293 -70%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $205 −$200 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 09 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 09 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 09 $311 +$345 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET May 09 $131 −$90 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 08 $207 +$168 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 08 $517 +$288 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 08 $282 +$35 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 08 $51 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 08 $76 +$26 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 08 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 08 $102 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 08 $207 +$192 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 08 $103 +$91 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 08 $58 −$55 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 08 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 08 $207 +$181 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 08 $155 −$55 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 08 $103 +$91 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 08 $139 +$92 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 08 $296 −$296 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 08 $104 +$114 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 08 $255 −$74 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 08 $410 +$114 +28%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 08 $652 +$18 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 19 $2,341 −$137 -6%
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31? Mar 15 $500 +$145 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Mar 12 $100 +$60 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $2,108 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,011 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,011 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $2,022 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,011 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,035 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 55¢ $35 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $702 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 2¢ $46 9h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $45 9h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $61 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $41 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $2,659 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $41 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,896.56 · official $9,896.79 (match) · 1176 history records