Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:50:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b3b…78cf other 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$29 (-31%) realized −$28 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate23%16W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$20
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$20
crypto 31% −$13
weather 9% −$3
sports 8% +$4
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-44.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -7.7% -16.5% 36% 29% -15.6%
≤30d 64 -39.6% -45.3% 23% 19% -43.2%
≤90d 69 -38.9% -44.7% 23% 19% -41.8%
all 69 -38.9% -44.7% 23% 19% -41.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.7% 19% -41.8%
10% -50.0% 17% -47.3%
15% -54.8% 16% -52.4%
20% -59.2% 14% -57.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$28
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses16 / 53
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage38d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -26%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -11%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +80%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 +$3 +291%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +127%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 08 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Syria win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $9 $0 +3%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 $0 +4%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 $0 -15%
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 $0 -24%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Liechtenstein win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +69%
Will Honduras win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Nicaragua win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Puerto Rico win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Finland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Montenegro win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belarus vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Will India win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 -16%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 04 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Sweden vs. Greece end in a draw? Jun 04 $2 $0 -13%
Will Slovenia vs. Cyprus end in a draw? Jun 04 $1 $0 +41%
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mali win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1 +$2 +169%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 6d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 6d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 6d
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 69¢ $2 6d
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 6d
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 6d
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 6d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 6d
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes $1 8d
Will Syria win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes $1 8d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 8d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 97¢ $9 8d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 61¢ $1 8d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes $1 8d
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.18 · official $1.18 (match) · 109 history records