Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6B 0x6b39…8d57 sports 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4,488 (+16%) realized +$4,487 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate72%36W / 14L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$550per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% +$3,164
other 25% +$689
politics 13% +$252
economics 13% +$196
crypto 8% +$159
finance 7% −$15
world 5% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -7.8% -16.6% 50% 50% +0.3%
≤90d 25 +26.9% +14.8% 64% 56% +31.3%
all 50 +8.2% -2.1% 72% 38% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 38% +4.9%
10% -11.5% 36% -5.1%
15% -20.0% 32% -14.3%
20% -27.8% 28% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,136) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$168 vs −$113 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.83 per $1 lost it wins $3.83
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$4,487
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses36 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage240d
Avg bet$550
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Miami Marlins 48¢ 48¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $63 −$62 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 15 $48 −$48 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $60 +$63 +105%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $67 +$51 +75%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 06 $79 −$78 -99%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $175 +$127 +72%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 25 $116 −$114 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $482 +$216 +45%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $29 +$27 +93%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group S May 19 $390 +$30 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 14 $108 −$108 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $2,102 +$2,020 +96%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $32 +$46 +146%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $206 −$206 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $2,057 +$1,315 +64%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? May 05 $122 +$183 +150%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $166 +$117 +70%
UFC Fight Night: Jafel Filho vs. Lucas Rocha (Flyweight, Prelims) Apr 24 $114 −$2 -2%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $79 −$77 -99%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 22 $33 +$46 +140%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 21 $124 +$248 +199%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 16 $43 +$62 +146%
Magic vs. Pelicans Apr 16 $129 +$80 +62%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $83 −$82 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 04 $1,745 +$43 +2%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 26 $738 +$287 +39%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 20 $243 +$57 +24%
Lehigh Mountain Hawks vs. Prairie View A&M Panthers Mar 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Mar 18 $22 +$15 +67%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $118 +$35 +30%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 18 $1,121 +$111 +10%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 17 $529 −$529 -100%
Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers Mar 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 17 $1,717 +$79 +5%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Mar 07 $1,601 +$128 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 11 $1,569 +$32 +2%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 04 $1,484 +$85 +6%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? Jan 15 $1,456 +$28 +2%
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? Jan 07 $1,333 +$78 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 20 $216 +$3 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 20 $1,067 +$93 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Dec 05 $1,136 +$148 +13%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Nov 20 $203 −$203 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 20 $1,245 +$93 +8%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 10 $1,164 +$81 +7%
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in October? Nov 03 $1,152 +$12 +1%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30? Nov 01 $36 $0 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 31 $43 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 31 $1,091 +$18 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Miami Marlins 48¢ $60 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $63 10d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 47¢ $48 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 48¢ $60 15d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? BUY Yes 57¢ $40 17d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 17d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? BUY Yes 57¢ $13 17d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 17d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 17d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 17d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 17d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $79 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 38¢ $116 31d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 58¢ $175 37d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $482 37d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group S SELL Brute 42¢ $335 37d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group S SELL Brute 42¢ $9 37d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group S SELL Brute 42¢ $67 37d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group S SELL Brute 42¢ $9 37d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group S BUY Brute 39¢ $390 37d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 51¢ $29 37d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? BUY No 33¢ $108 43d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 51¢ $6 44d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 51¢ $1,488 44d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 51¢ $5 44d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 51¢ $43 44d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 51¢ $5 44d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 51¢ $146 44d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 51¢ $18 44d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 51¢ $32 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.53 · official $59.53 (match) · 181 history records