Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:30:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b37…12af crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$154
sports 23% +$37
crypto 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -8.4% -17.1% 50% 33% -44.9%
≤30d 6 -8.4% -17.1% 50% 33% -44.9%
≤90d 6 -8.4% -17.1% 50% 33% -44.9%
all 6 -8.4% -17.1% 50% 33% -44.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 33% -44.9%
10% -25.0% 33% -50.2%
15% -32.3% 33% -55.0%
20% -38.9% 33% -59.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$53 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $70 +$37 +52%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $222 −$154 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$3 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $107 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $70 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 22¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $151 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records