Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:05:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6B 0x6b36…4a7c crypto 1258 markets active 0h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$331 (-4%) realized −$327 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%451W / 805L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day23.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$55
14 days−$14
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$398
sports 7% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 +46.2% +32.3% 35% 35% +7.4%
≤30d 191 +14.7% +3.8% 31% 31% -18.5%
≤90d 1014 -7.6% -16.4% 34% 34% -20.1%
all 1256 -2.3% -11.6% 36% 36% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 36% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 35% -22.7%
15% -27.8% 34% -30.1%
20% -34.9% 32% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$6 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$327
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses451 / 805
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1256 / 1258
History coverage109d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 428 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$14 +349%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$9 +504%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$5 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $18 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$27 +322%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$7 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$9 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$5 +227%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $0 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $0 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $0 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $0 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $0 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 2d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 44¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 3162 history records