Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:08:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b35…4a36 other 392 markets active 2h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,298 (-22%) realized −$2,199 · open −$99
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate13%48W / 317L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$524now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$59
7 days+$85
14 days+$85
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$1,103
crypto 37% −$860
world 13% −$279
economics 4% −$210
politics 2% −$114
sports 2% −$13
finance 1% −$42
tech 1% −$52
culture 0% −$6
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-48.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +5.6% -4.5% 15% 15% +11.6%
≤30d 29 +0.8% -8.8% 14% 14% +6.0%
≤90d 142 -40.6% -46.2% 18% 15% -36.7%
all 365 -43.2% -48.6% 13% 12% -39.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.6% 12% -39.6%
10% -53.6% 10% -45.4%
15% -58.0% 9% -50.6%
20% -62.2% 8% -55.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$16 · ×3.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$524
Realized−$2,199
Unrealized−$99
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses48 / 317
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions27
Markets (closed)365 / 392
History coverage145d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 365 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $80 $76 −$4 (-5%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $55 $46 −$9 (-17%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $45 $42 −$3 (-7%)
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $40 $35 −$5 (-12%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $40 $27 −$13 (-32%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 France? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-14%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-16%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-31%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $30 $13 −$17 (-57%)
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 Senegal? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-15%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 Senegal? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $15 $12 −$2 (-17%)
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 Senegal? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Iraq? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $10 $7 −$2 (-25%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Yes 21¢ 18¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Iraq? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-34%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Iraq? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 218 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $21 −$4 -21%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 +$40 +786%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 17 $15 −$3 -18%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $83 +$269 +325%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $103 −$85 -83%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $21 +$40 +196%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 +$39 +982%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 26 $20 −$19 -94%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 21 $86 −$82 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 21 $88 −$30 -34%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $10 −$1 -6%
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? May 21 $5 −$2 -42%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $6 +$3 +50%
Will NVIDIA say "Ethereum" during their next earnings call? May 21 $6 −$5 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 19 $633 −$211 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 19 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 19 $52 +$59 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 19 $243 +$17 +7%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? May 19 $21 −$14 -68%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $20 −$2 -8%
Will NVIDIA say "Token" 20+ times during their next earnings call? May 19 $21 +$3 +12%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $118 −$9 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 18 $37 −$13 -34%
Will Stephan Jaeger finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron N May 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will "Magic" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Pod May 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will NVIDIA say "Blackwell" 10+ times during their next earnings call? May 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $41 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 2h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 2h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $6 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $61 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Iraq? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Iraq? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Iraq? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 2h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 7h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $11 7h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $523.72 · official $523.81 (match) · 801 history records