Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:44:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6B 0x6b34…fb56 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$309 (+5%) realized +$309 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days+$90
14 days+$184
30 days+$228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$512
sports 28% +$146
crypto 4% −$292
world 2% −$102
tech 1% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +7.9% -2.4% 40% 40% -8.0%
≤30d 33 +3.8% -6.1% 42% 42% -6.4%
≤90d 33 +3.8% -6.1% 42% 42% -6.4%
all 33 +3.8% -6.1% 42% 42% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 42% -6.4%
10% -15.1% 39% -15.3%
15% -23.3% 39% -23.5%
20% -30.8% 27% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$88 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$309
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage19d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$5 -5%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$68 +134%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$38 +74%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $135 +$63 +46%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $81 −$21 -25%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 +$75 +307%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $111 −$110 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$102 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$102 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $107 +$243 +226%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $195 −$192 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,442 +$237 +16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $83 −$81 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $121 −$41 -34%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1,155 −$29 -2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $92 −$14 -15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$222 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $103 +$257 +250%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $314 −$310 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $203 +$148 +73%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $37 −$37 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $15 −$15 -97%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $101 +$47 +46%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $203 +$99 +49%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $104 −$100 -96%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $284 +$216 +76%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $142 +$142 +100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $514 −$215 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18 BUY 35¢ $122 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 52¢ $97 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 14h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 17h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $101 19h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 57¢ $51 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $198 36h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 31¢ $61 37h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $81 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $135 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $111 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $103 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $103 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $195 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $107 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 78¢ $1,495 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 29¢ $83 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 41¢ $81 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 57¢ $0 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,251 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 57¢ $1,125 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $121 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 16¢ $78 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $256 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $425 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $899 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $120.00 · 78 history records