Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b31…5b6f other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-2%) realized −$29 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$314now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -24.3% -31.5% 0% 0% -31.2%
≤30d 2 -24.3% -31.5% 0% 0% -31.2%
≤90d 2 -24.3% -31.5% 0% 0% -31.2%
all 2 -24.3% -31.5% 0% 0% -31.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.5% 0% -31.2%
10% -38.1% 0% -37.8%
15% -44.1% 0% -43.8%
20% -49.6% 0% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$18 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$314
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage4d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $144 $160 +$16 (+11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $71 $75 +$4 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $73 −$26 -35%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $79 −$11 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $82 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $47 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $25 24h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 24h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 24h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 24h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 24h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 24h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 24h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $27 25h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 25h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $68 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $68 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $73 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $79 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $79 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $314.18 · official $314.18 (match) · 21 history records