Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:20:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b31…5fe4 crypto 626 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$400 (-5%) realized −$400 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate83%521W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day31.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$328
14 days−$487
30 days−$497
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$497
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 130 -11.9% -20.2% 75% 42% -21.7%
≤30d 625 -2.2% -11.5% 83% 43% -14.8%
≤90d 625 -2.2% -11.5% 83% 43% -14.8%
all 625 -2.2% -11.5% 83% 43% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 43% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 18% -22.9%
15% -27.7% 7% -30.4%
20% -34.8% 4% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$15 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$400
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses521 / 104
Open positions0
Markets (closed)625 / 626
History coverage25d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 625 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 24 $43 −$41 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 24 $93 +$18 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 24 $93 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 24 $94 +$17 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 24 $93 −$92 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $93 +$16 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $92 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $93 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $18 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $12 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $12 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $12 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $12 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $12 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $12 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $18 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $58 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $59 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $59 +$7 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $12 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 22 $16 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 22 $18 +$4 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 22 $11 +$13 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 22 $15 +$3 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$4 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $93 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $94 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $93 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $93 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $92 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $93 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $18 20h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $12 20h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $12 21h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $12 22h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $12 22h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $12 22h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $12 22h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $12 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $18 23h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $58 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $59 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $59 26h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $12 27h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $6 36h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 37h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $6 37h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $16 39h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1472 history records