Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:25:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b2f…42cc crypto 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$301 (-4%) realized −$301 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 28L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days+$7
14 days+$8
30 days−$345
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% +$6
other 34% −$4
sports 7% −$347
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-46.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -63.4% -66.9% 22% 19% -9.0%
≤30d 44 -41.1% -46.7% 36% 11% -13.3%
≤90d 44 -41.1% -46.7% 36% 11% -13.3%
all 44 -41.1% -46.7% 36% 11% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.7% 11% -13.3%
10% -51.8% 11% -21.6%
15% -56.5% 9% -29.1%
20% -60.8% 5% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -18% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$16 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$301
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage26d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $42 −$42 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $30 +$20 +70%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $16 +$8 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $17 +$18 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $43 +$11 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $36 +$14 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $465 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $485 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $465 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $299 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $340 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $465 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $486 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $358 −$355 -99%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $531 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $536 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $500 +$1 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET Jun 09 $570 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $483 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $513 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $526 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $400 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $450 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $103 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $171 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $42 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down $0 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down $0 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down $0 22h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $21 24h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 41h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $16 45h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down $0 47h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up $0 47h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up $0 47h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up $0 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 48¢ $17 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up $0 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down $0 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $16 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 54¢ $23 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 60¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down $0 4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $36 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up $0 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down $0 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down $0 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records