Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b2b…9514 politics 167 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$113 (-0%) realized −$113 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%24W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$15
14 days−$19
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% −$36
other 26% −$15
sports 13% −$58
world 7% −$5
crypto 6% −$6
economics 5% −$4
finance 4% −$11
culture 4% −$4
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.9% -10.3% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 72 -2.1% -11.4% 8% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 154 -1.2% -10.6% 12% 0% -10.1%
all 166 -1.2% -10.6% 14% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -10.1%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses24 / 142
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)166 / 167
History coverage99d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion Jun 17 $34 −$2 -5%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 16 $41 $0 -0%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $142 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 15 $35 −$1 -1%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $19 −$1 -4%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $76 −$1 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $46 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 14 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $383 −$1 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $232 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $29 $0 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $335 −$3 -1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $154 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $156 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 11 $40 $0 +1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $133 −$1 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $44 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $41 $0 -1%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $254 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $50 $0 -1%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $42 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $43 $0 +1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 04 $30 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $96 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $144 −$1 -0%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5) Jun 03 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $57 $0 -1%
Will Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 02 $46 −$1 -2%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $269 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $42 $0 +0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $101 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $53 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 30 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $86 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $45 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $48 −$4 -8%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $39 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $41 43m
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $26 1h
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $27 7h
Will the Edmonton Oilers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion SELL No 90¢ $33 7h
Will the Edmonton Oilers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion BUY No 94¢ $19 13h
Will the Edmonton Oilers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion BUY No 94¢ $15 13h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $32 14h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $32 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $41 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $41 27h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $38 27h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $38 32h
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $15 33h
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $15 37h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $37 37h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $37 41h
Will the Anaheim Ducks be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 95¢ $35 42h
Will the Anaheim Ducks be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 96¢ $35 2d
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $19 2d
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $19 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $38 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $46 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $46 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $38 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $38 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 3d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $44 3d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $44 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.48 · official $40.48 (match) · 715 history records