Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:45:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6B 0x6b2b…d9c7 weather 323 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$95 (-2%) realized −$146 · open +$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate43%135W / 177L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$336now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$741
7 days+$544
14 days+$544
30 days+$277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 21% −$172
sports 19% +$822
politics 16% −$24
crypto 14% −$103
finance 13% −$67
world 10% +$94
other 4% +$4
economics 3% −$137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -15.8% -23.8% 36% 26% +22.6%
≤30d 265 -10.7% -19.2% 43% 25% -0.1%
≤90d 312 -7.3% -16.1% 43% 28% -2.8%
all 312 -7.3% -16.1% 43% 28% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 28% -2.8%
10% -24.1% 19% -12.1%
15% -31.5% 15% -20.6%
20% -38.2% 13% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$11 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$336
Realized−$146
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses135 / 177
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions11
Markets (closed)312 / 323
History coverage59d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 312 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 76¢ 97¢ $200 $253 +$53 (+27%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Hong Kong have between 475-500mm of precipitation in June? No 89¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Hong Kong have between 375-400mm of precipitation in June? No 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Hong Kong have between 350-375mm of precipitation in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 22 $159 +$76 +48%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $72 +$572 +796%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$37 +365%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $20 +$4 +22%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 +$202 +982%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$56 +276%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$91 +442%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $88 +$53 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $180 −$79 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $308 +$69 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +81%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 3? Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Jun Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 76°F or higher on June Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 3? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 3? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $62 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 20h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 20h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 20h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 20h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 20h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 20h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 20h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 20h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 20h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 20h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 20h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 3d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 73¢ $19 4d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 4d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 4d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 4d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $336.09 · official $336.09 (match) · 891 history records