Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:32:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6B 0x6b26…6011 crypto 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$13 (+42%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 97d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$11
crypto 33% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +54.4% +39.7% 100% 100% +39.7%
≤30d 1 +54.4% +39.7% 100% 100% +39.7%
≤90d 1 +54.4% +39.7% 100% 100% +39.7%
all 8 +27.2% +15.1% 62% 62% +27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.1% 62% +27.8%
10% +4.1% 62% +15.6%
15% -6.0% 62% +4.4%
20% -15.2% 50% -5.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.36 per $1 lost it wins $6.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage97d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 +$11 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 12 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 12 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 12 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 12 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 12 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 12 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 12 $2 −$1 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records