Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:39:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b25…8f13 politics 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% +$1
world 23% $0
other 22% +$2
crypto 15% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 1% −$1
finance 1% +$1
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 +1.3% -8.4% 38% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 9 +1.1% -8.5% 44% 0% -9.3%
all 38 +3.6% -6.3% 39% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 5% -9.2%
10% -15.3% 3% -17.9%
15% -23.5% 3% -25.8%
20% -31.0% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.89 per $1 lost it wins $2.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage280d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $4 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $8 +$1 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $23 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $25 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $31 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $27 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Oct 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Oct 13 $55 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 13 $17 +$1 +6%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $44 $0 +1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $2 +$2 +141%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $38 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $20 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $160 in September? Sep 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 18 $26 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 18 $1 $0 +20%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $2 $0 +1%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 18 $2 −$1 -42%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 18 $57 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 16 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $29 29m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 1h
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $4 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $6 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $1 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $16 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $23 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $25 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 74¢ $25 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $4 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $29 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $11 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $15 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $27 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $15 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $12 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $27 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 31d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $13 33d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $7 33d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $10 33d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $29 33d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $12 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records