Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:22:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b24…5b8c other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate45%18W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$1
world 25% $0
tech 11% $0
culture 5% −$1
crypto 4% $0
economics 3% $0
politics 2% $0
sports 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 4 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 8 -0.9% -10.4% 62% 0% -9.4%
all 40 -1.0% -10.4% 45% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 2% -9.9%
10% -19.0% 2% -18.5%
15% -26.8% 2% -26.4%
20% -34.0% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses18 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage472d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $34 $0 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $83 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $3 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $28 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $33 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $33 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 13 $7 $0 +5%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 26 $1 +$1 +65%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $29 $0 -1%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Jun 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 07 $9 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 320–334 times May 30–June 6? Jun 05 $10 −$2 -15%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $10 $0 +2%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 02 $9 −$1 -12%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 01 $3 −$2 -62%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? May 31 $11 $0 -2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $11 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 10 $29 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 09 $1 $0 -20%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend May 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? May 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $95000 and $97000 on May 9? May 08 $5 $0 +2%
Will another candidate win? May 08 $27 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 07 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $28 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $5 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 5h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $6 5h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $28 7h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $34 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $32 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $32 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $36 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $36 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $31 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $33 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $3 29d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $28 30d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $10 30d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $18 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 31d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 31d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $3 31d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $5 32d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $27 32d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $1 32d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $33 32d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $36 33d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $37 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.24 · official $0.00 · 119 history records