Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:51:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b22…35bb crypto 583 markets active 9h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$162 (+2%) realized +$162 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate82%476W / 107L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$5
14 days−$6
30 days+$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 +1.1% -8.5% 93% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 527 +1.6% -8.0% 84% 22% -7.9%
≤90d 583 +1.0% -8.6% 82% 24% -8.2%
all 583 +1.0% -8.6% 82% 24% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 24% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 16% -17.0%
15% -25.4% 7% -25.0%
20% -32.7% 2% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$162
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses476 / 107
Open positions0
Markets (closed)583 / 583
History coverage32d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 583 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$7 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $9 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $7 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $9 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $9 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $9 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $9 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $9 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $2 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $7 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $9 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $9 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $9 19h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $9 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $0 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $9 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $10 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.24 · official $0.00 (match) · 1345 history records