Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:28:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b1a…c04b crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (112 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+2%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day112.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$12
other 12% $0
world 8% +$1
sports 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (112 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -19.2% -26.9% 56% 38% -17.4%
≤30d 16 -19.2% -26.9% 56% 38% -17.4%
≤90d 16 -19.2% -26.9% 56% 38% -17.4%
all 16 -19.2% -26.9% 56% 38% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover112.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.9% 38% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -33.9% 12% -25.3%
15% -40.2% 6% -32.6%
20% -46.1% 6% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day112.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$6 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -42%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.02 · official $6.02 (match) · 122 history records