Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:38:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
6B 0x6b15…1109 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$12 (+4%) realized +$27 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$27
other 30% −$16
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +26.6% +14.5% 62% 62% +3.4%
≤30d 8 +26.6% +14.5% 62% 62% +3.4%
≤90d 8 +26.6% +14.5% 62% 62% +3.4%
all 8 +26.6% +14.5% 62% 62% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.5% 62% +3.4%
10% +3.5% 50% -6.5%
15% -6.5% 38% -15.5%
20% -15.6% 25% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$18 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$27
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary General of the United Nations? Yes 74¢ 60¢ $75 $61 −$14 (-19%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jacinda Ardern be the next Secretary General of the United Nations? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $24 +$17 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$37 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 25 $25 −$3 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.43 · official $76.43 (match) · 26 history records