Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:37:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b13…f125 world 174 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$8,454 (-9%) realized −$5,194 · open +$536
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate62%93W / 57L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$550per market
Trades / day31.7pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$6,280now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$512
7 days+$704
14 days+$770
30 days−$2,069
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$6,041
other 36% +$375
politics 6% +$24
sports 3% −$134
culture 2% +$237
economics 2% +$833
crypto 0% +$23
tech 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +98.8% +79.8% 100% 67% +24.8%
≤30d 53 +41.1% +27.7% 70% 36% -24.0%
≤90d 132 +2.2% -7.5% 59% 24% -19.0%
all 150 +4.2% -5.8% 62% 27% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 27% -14.6%
10% -14.8% 19% -22.8%
15% ← realistic here -23.0% 13% -30.2%
20% -30.6% 11% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$202 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$6,280
Realized−$5,194
Unrealized+$536
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses93 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions24
Markets (closed)150 / 174
History coverage106d
Avg bet$550
Trades / day31.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 69¢ 88¢ $2,735 $3,503 +$768 (+28%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 84¢ $752 $753 +$1 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $720 $632 −$88 (-12%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 88¢ 99¢ $428 $485 +$57 (+13%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $189 $178 −$11 (-6%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 62¢ 67¢ $142 $154 +$12 (+8%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 97¢ 98¢ $128 $128 +$0 (+0%)
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 93¢ 95¢ $99 $102 +$3 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 53¢ 55¢ $83 $85 +$2 (+3%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 86¢ 81¢ $84 $79 −$5 (-6%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $46 $49 +$2 (+5%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-34%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 93¢ 38¢ $66 $27 −$39 (-59%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes 42¢ 23¢ $43 $23 −$19 (-45%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 46¢ 42¢ $24 $22 −$2 (-7%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? Yes 35¢ $43 $8 −$35 (-81%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 62¢ 98¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+58%)
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Yes $7 $4 −$3 (-39%)
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? No 47¢ 32¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-31%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Yes $6 $4 −$2 (-37%)
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? Yes 34¢ 27¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026? Yes 72¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+39%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? Yes 42¢ $88 $0 −$88 (-100%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 38¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $394 +$8 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $660 +$504 +76%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $38 +$14 +38%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $27 +$18 +68%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $62 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $72 +$12 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $116 +$1 +1%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J Jun 09 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $7 +$42 +565%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $11 +$38 +351%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $166 +$60 +36%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $292 +$3 +1%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $360 +$87 +24%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 02 $6 +$2 +33%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $139 +$26 +19%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater tha Jun 01 $5 +$1 +11%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $91 +$10 +11%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $38 +$12 +31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $72 −$72 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $108 −$49 -45%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $1,156 −$1,124 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $19 −$1 -6%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 29 $41 −$5 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $74 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 29 $277 −$276 -100%
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 27 $20 $0 +2%
Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 27 $406 +$4 +1%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 27 $740 +$72 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $1,431 −$1,264 -88%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $17 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $127 −$38 -30%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? May 26 $48 −$35 -74%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 26 $9 $0 +1%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $57 +$4 +7%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 24 $485 +$40 +8%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $68 −$6 -9%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $169 +$349 +207%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? May 22 $17 +$5 +28%
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% May 22 $11 +$53 +482%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 22 $82 +$98 +119%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 22 $193 −$92 -48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 32m? May 21 $0 $0 +5%
Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky? May 21 $14 $0 +1%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m? May 21 $17 $0 +2%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m May 21 $36 +$1 +3%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m? May 21 $12 +$78 +669%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 21 $421 +$14 +3%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 21 $1,050 +$85 +8%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 20 $229 −$222 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $136 45m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 97¢ $128 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $156 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $24 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $23 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $23 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $23 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $83 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $132 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $84 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $7 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $12 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $26 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $62 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $125 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $70 1h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $11 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $55 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $16 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $7 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $9 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,280.50 · official $6,279.99 (match) · 3500 history records